Using of the Weibull distribution in developing global solar radiation forecasting models

Kaplan A. G.

ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRESS AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, cilt.43, sa.e14380, ss.1-11, 2022 (SCI-Expanded)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 43 Sayı: e14380
  • Basım Tarihi: 2022
  • Dergi Adı: ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRESS AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, PASCAL, Applied Science & Technology Source, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Biotechnology Research Abstracts, Chemical Abstracts Core, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, Environment Index, Greenfile, INSPEC, Pollution Abstracts
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-11
  • Çukurova Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

In this study, a solar radiation prediction model was developed using the Weibull dis-tribution function (WDF). The main purpose of this study is to develop a new modelfor solar radiation (SR) estimation using the WDF and to bring this model to the liter-ature. Although the WDF is widely used in wind energy forecasting due to its com-patibility with wind speed data, it has not been used before in solar radiationforecasting model development. In this study, it is aimed to make SR estimation withthe WDF for the first time. SR data for all regions where this new model was devel-oped and its performance was examined were obtained from the General Directorateof Meteorology. In order to decide the success of these developed models, five dif-ferent statistical metrics (RPE, MPE, MAPE, SSRE, and t-stat) were discussed in thestudy. When the results are evaluated in general, it is seen that the new developedmodel has an acceptable performance. According to all test results in the regionwhere the model was developed, it is seen that the new developed model showedthe best performance with 0.0353, 0.4068, 7.1851, 0.1144, and 0.0162 values,respectively. The performance of this new developed model was observed in threedifferent regions. When the statistical test results in these regions were examined, itwas seen that the new model developed had a similar performance to the popularsolar forecasting models widely used in the literature.