Improvement of the Liu-type Shiller estimator for distributed lag models

ÖZBAY N., KAÇIRANLAR S.

JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, cilt.36, sa.7, ss.776-783, 2017 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 36 Sayı: 7
  • Basım Tarihi: 2017
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1002/for.2469
  • Dergi Adı: JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.776-783
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: distributed lag model, Liu-type Shiller estimator, prediction mean square error, target function, SMOOTHNESS PRIORS, LINEAR-REGRESSION, RIDGE ESTIMATORS
  • Çukurova Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The problem of multicollinearity produces undesirable effects on ordinary least squares (OLS), Almon and Shiller estimators for distributed lag models. Therefore, we introduce a Liu-type Shiller estimator to deal with multicollinearity for distributed lag models. Moreover, we theoretically compare the predictive performance of the Liu-type Shiller estimator with OLS and the Shiller estimators by the prediction mean square error criterion under the target function. Furthermore, an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to evaluate the predictive performance of the Liu-type Shiller estimator.