Testing the export-led growth hypothesis in Turkey: New evidence from time and frequency domain causality approaches

Bozatli O., BAL H., ALBAYRAK M.

JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, cilt.32, sa.6, ss.835-853, 2023 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 32 Sayı: 6
  • Basım Tarihi: 2023
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1080/09638199.2022.2144932
  • Dergi Adı: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, IBZ Online, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, ABI/INFORM, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, EconLit, Geobase
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.835-853
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Export-led growth, growth-led export, frequency domain causality, time domain causality, government expenditure
  • Çukurova Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study investigates the validity of Turkey's export-led growth hypothesis (ELG) with the time domain and frequency domain causality methods using quarterly data for the 1998Q1-2021Q4 period. We also test whether government expenditure is an important channel within the framework of the ELG hypothesis. The time-domain causality results indicate that the feedback and import-led growth (ILG) hypotheses are valid. The frequency-domain causality results imply that the hypothesis of the growth-led export (GLE) is valid. Therefore, the time and frequency domain causality findings indicate that the ELG hypothesis is invalid. Turkey, which has followed an export-oriented industrialization strategy since 1980, is far from successful in this policy. Therefore, policymakers need to revise Turkey's foreign trade strategy.