JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, vol.32, no.6, pp.835-853, 2023 (SSCI)
This study investigates the validity of Turkey's export-led growth hypothesis (ELG) with the time domain and frequency domain causality methods using quarterly data for the 1998Q1-2021Q4 period. We also test whether government expenditure is an important channel within the framework of the ELG hypothesis. The time-domain causality results indicate that the feedback and import-led growth (ILG) hypotheses are valid. The frequency-domain causality results imply that the hypothesis of the growth-led export (GLE) is valid. Therefore, the time and frequency domain causality findings indicate that the ELG hypothesis is invalid. Turkey, which has followed an export-oriented industrialization strategy since 1980, is far from successful in this policy. Therefore, policymakers need to revise Turkey's foreign trade strategy.