Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, cilt.282, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
Accurate estimation of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at local and global scales is vital for understanding climate change and predicting future global warming trends. This study employs the ARIMAX (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables) model to estimate the annual average SST from 1940 to 2100 for the Mediterranean and globally. By using 2 m air temperature (T2m) as an external variable in the model, the predictive capabilities of atmosphere-ocean interaction are extended beyond traditional univariate time series forecasting approaches. ARIMAX forecasting model results from observed annual average SST data between 1940 and 2024 indicate high predictive accuracy, with correlation coefficients of R = 0.9391 for the Mediterranean and R = 0.9774 globally, and low error measures (MAPE, MAE, RMSE) for these regions. Projections under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios show a consistent increase in annual average SST, whereas Mediterranean data show greater variability and a stronger warming trend compared to the global average. Based on projected results, the Mediterranean Sea's present annual-mean SST of 18.9 °C is predicted to rise to 19.8 °C under SSP2-4.5 and to 21.6 °C under SSP5-8.5. The current annual mean SST for the global ocean is 18.4 °C; under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, it is projected to increase to 19.1 °C and 20.4 °C, respectively. The most noteworthy and crucial climatological conclusion for the Mediterranean Sea is that T2m is rapidly nearing the SST value due to a rising tendency, particularly in the post-2020 timeframe.