Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
7th International Project and Construction Management Conference (IPCMC2022), İstanbul, Türkiye, 20 - 22 Ekim 2022, ss.525-533
Construction cost fluctuations are crucial for project performance and it is very difficult to predict future cost fluctuations in developing and volatile economies. The construction cost index (CCI) is a statistical indicator that is an aggregate of material and labor costs produced and published by the Turkish Statistical Institute every month. CCI is widely used for future cost prediction by practitioners. This study aims to determine causal relationships between construction costs and major macroeconomic indicators such as; the consumer price index, producer price index, exchange rate, construction turnover index, etc. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model and Granger Causality Test are employed to determine the cointegration and causality between the construction cost index and other macroeconomic indicators. This study provides important findings for improving future construction cost estimates. It also provides important candidate variables that can be used in cost estimation algorithms in the future.