Warming trends and projections in the depth layers of the Indian and global oceans
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, cilt.138, sa.6, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 138 Sayı: 6
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s00703-026-01211-1
- Dergi Adı: Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Aerospace Database, Environment Index, Geobase, INSPEC, Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Earth, Atmospheric, & Aquatic Science Collection (ProQuest), Technology Collection (ProQuest)
- Çukurova Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
In this study, warming trends over the period 1955–2024 and future projections up to the year 2100 are analyzed using 3-month mean anomalies of ocean temperature (OT) and near-surface atmospheric temperature (T2m) for the Indian Ocean and the global ocean. OT anomalies for the 0–100 m, 0–700 m, and 0–2000 m depth layers, obtained from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), and ERA5-based sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are modeled using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) approach. T2m is used as an external explanatory variable within these models. The results indicate that from 1955 to 2024, the surface warming trends are 0.1 °C decade⁻¹ in the Indian Ocean and 0.09 °C decade⁻¹ in the global ocean. Using the 1951–2000 period mean as a reference, OT anomalies in 2024 are 0.840 °C for the Indian Ocean and 0.73 °C for the global ocean. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, these anomalies are projected to increase to 1.29 °C and 1.27 °C by 2100; under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, they are expected to reach 2.8 °C and 2.6 °C by 2100, respectively. The analysis demonstrates that positive anomaly trends persist in deeper ocean layers, indicating that ocean warming is not confined to the surface and that substantial heat accumulation throughout the ocean column is likely to continue during the 21st century.