Assessing fire severity patterns and carbon sink capacity changes following the 2021 Manavgat wildfire using remote sensing and Google Earth Engine
ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL DEVOTED TO PROGRESS IN THE USE OF MONITORING DATA IN ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS TO MAN AND THE ENVIRONMENT, cilt.198, sa.1277, ss.1-2, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 198 Sayı: 1277
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s10661-026-16115-1
- Dergi Adı: ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL DEVOTED TO PROGRESS IN THE USE OF MONITORING DATA IN ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS TO MAN AND THE ENVIRONMENT
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Biomedical Reference Collection: Corporate Edition (EBSCO), Health Research Premium Collection (ProQuest), Scopus, Pharma Collection (ProQuest), Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), ABI/INFORM, BIOSIS, Compendex, EMBASE, Environment Index, Geobase, Greenfile, MEDLINE, Public Affairs Index, Urban Studies Abstracts, Zoological Record
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-2
- Açık Arşiv Koleksiyonu: AVESİS Açık Erişim Koleksiyonu
- Çukurova Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Wildfires can impair vegetation productivity well beyond the fire year, yet the persistence and monetary implications of these deficits remain poorly characterised in Mediterranean landscapes. This study integrates Sentinel-2 burn-severity mapping, MODIS annual net primary production (NPP), an adjacent unburned-forest comparison, and scenario-based valuation to assess the 2021 Manavgat wildfire in Türkiye. A MODIS burned-area event envelope covered 424 km2, including 270 km2 of pre-fire forest; valid paired Sentinel-2 observations supported severity classification across 246.26 km2. Burn-severity thresholds derived from the study-area differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) distribution were 0.316 and 0.613. Relative to the 2016–2020 mean (0.830 kg C m⁻2 yr⁻1), burned-forest NPP declined to 0.621 in 2021 and 0.440 in 2022, then increased to 0.705 in 2023 and 0.710 in 2024. A difference-in-differences comparison with nearby unburned forest indicated persistent productivity deficits beyond shared temporal variability. The estimated cumulative productivity-based carbon sink deficit for 2021–2024 was 227,150 t C (832,885 t CO2e). Valuation was approximately USD 158.2 million under the central social cost of carbon scenario and EUR 60.5 million using annual EU Allowance prices. These findings demonstrate the value of integrating severity, productivity trajectories, and economic scenarios for post-fire monitoring and restoration prioritisation.