Relative importance of parameters affecting wind speed prediction using artificial neural networks


Ghorbani M. A. , Khatibi R., Hosseini B., BİLGİLİ M.

THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, cilt.114, ss.107-114, 2013 (SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 114
  • Basım Tarihi: 2013
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s00704-012-0821-9
  • Dergi Adı: THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.107-114

Özet

In traditional artificial neural networks (ANN) models, the relative importance of the individual meteorological input variables is often overlooked. A case study is presented in this paper to model monthly wind speed values using meteorological data (air pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation), where the study also includes an estimate of the relative importance of these variables. Recorded monthly mean data are available at a gauging site in Tabriz, Azerbaijan, Iran, for the period from 2000 to 2005, gauged in the city at the outskirt of alluvial funneling mountains with an established microclimatic conditions and a diurnal wind regime. This provides a sufficiently severe test for the ANN model with a good predictive capability of 1 year of lead time but without any direct approach to refer the predicted results to local microclimatic conditions. A method is used in this paper to calculate the relative importance of each meteorological input parameters affecting wind speed, showing that air pressure and precipitation are the most and least influential parameters with approximate values of 40 and 10 %, respectively. This gained knowledge corresponds to the local knowledge of the microclimatic and geomorphologic conditions surrounding Tabriz.