Öztornacı B., Önsel Ekici Ş., Topcu Y. İ.
Systems, cilt.14, sa.3, ss.1-19, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
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Yayın Türü:
Makale / Tam Makale
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Cilt numarası:
14
Sayı:
3
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Basım Tarihi:
2026
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Doi Numarası:
10.3390/systems14030250
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Dergi Adı:
Systems
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Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler:
Scopus, Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Compendex, Directory of Open Access Journals
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Sayfa Sayıları:
ss.1-19
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Açık Arşiv Koleksiyonu:
AVESİS Açık Erişim Koleksiyonu
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Çukurova Üniversitesi Adresli:
Evet
Özet
Household food expenditure reflects not only income differences, but also how demographic,
economic, and institutional factors interact within the household. This study
examines household food expenditure in Türkiye from a systems perspective, with a particular
focus on the role of gender in shaping economic vulnerability. Using microdata
from the 2018 Household Budget Survey, the analysis employs a two-stage framework that
combines Artificial Neural Networks and a Tree-Augmented Bayesian Network. In the first
stage, non-linear relationships among household characteristics are identified and the most
influential determinants of food expenditure shares are determined. In the second stage, a
probabilistic system model is constructed to conduct counterfactual “what-if” simulations.
The results show that household food expenditure emerges as a systemic outcome influenced
by income, education, employment stability, savings capacity, and asset ownership,
with gender playing a central role. Female-headed households—particularly those living
alone and facing limited education and unstable employment—have a substantially higher
probability of allocating a large share of their budget to food. These findings are consistent
with Engel’s law and highlight the gendered nature of economic vulnerability. The study
suggests that food security policies should address employment stability, human capital,
and access to productive assets alongside income support.