Historical analysis and future projections of fundamental global climate indicators
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, cilt.157, sa.10, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 157 Sayı: 10
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s00704-026-06543-x
- Dergi Adı: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, IBZ Online, Aerospace Database, Artic & Antarctic Regions, BIOSIS, Environment Index, Geobase, Index Islamicus, INSPEC, Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO), Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Biomedical Reference Collection: Corporate Edition (EBSCO), Earth, Atmospheric, & Aquatic Science Collection (ProQuest), Materials Science & Engineering Collection (ProQuest), Technology Collection (ProQuest)
- Çukurova Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Long-term monitoring and projection of climate indicators are essential for understanding climate change and supporting effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, future scenario outputs are not directly available for several key atmospheric variables, limiting comprehensive assessments of the climate system. This study aimed to investigate the historical evolution (1940–2024) and future projections (2025–2100) of ten major global climate indicators, including dry-bulb temperature (T), dew point temperature (Td), wet-bulb temperature (Tw), dew point depression (DPD), relative humidity (RH), humidity ratio (w), water vapor partial pressure (e), air density (ρ), total precipitation (TP), and total column precipitable water (TCPW). An integrated forecasting framework was developed by combining externally available climate scenario data, a statistical forecasting model (ARIMAX), and physically based thermodynamic equations. Future projections of Td and TCPW were obtained using ARIMAX with air temperature as the exogenous variable, whereas the remaining climate indicators were derived through established thermodynamic relationships. According to the results obtained, the values of T, Td, Tw, DPD, TCPW, e, w, RH, ρ, and TP were recorded as 15.1 °C, 10.0 °C, 12.2 °C, 5.1 °C, 25.6 kg/m², 12.3 hPa, 7.8 g/kg, 71.4%, 1.191 kg/m³, and 1.073 m, respectively, in 2024. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, these values are projected to reach 18.9 °C, 13.4 °C, 15.6 °C, 5.5 °C, 30.0 kg/m², 15.5 hPa, 9.9 g/kg, 70.5%, 1.174 kg/m³, and 1.128 m by the year 2100. The proposed integrated framework enables physically consistent long-term projections of multiple climate indicators, providing a practical tool for climate impact assessment, adaptation planning, and long-term environmental decision-making.