Market Integration and Forecasting in Sustainable Citrus Supply Chains in Türkiye

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Kaya T., Öztornacı B.

SUSTAINABILITY, cilt.18, sa.12, ss.6244, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, SSCI, Scopus)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 18 Sayı: 12
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.3390/su18126244
  • Dergi Adı: SUSTAINABILITY
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus, Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Geobase, INSPEC, CAB Abstracts
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.6244
  • Açık Arşiv Koleksiyonu: AVESİS Açık Erişim Koleksiyonu
  • Çukurova Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Sustainable fresh food supply chains depend heavily on effective coordination under uncertain

market conditions. Citrus export systems are particularly sensitive to perishability,

seasonality, and cold-chain constraints. Under these conditions, reliable price forecasts

are important for export planning, logistics efficiency, and sustainable supply-chain management.

This study examines the relationship between orange and mandarin export

prices in Türkiye using monthly data from 2016 to 2025. Export prices are proxied by

real unit values derived from official trade statistics. The analysis applies Augmented

Dickey–Fuller tests, Johansen cointegration analysis, and Vector Error Correction Models

(VECMs). Forecast performance is evaluated using a rolling-origin framework and

compared with ETS, SARIMA, XGBoost, and a seasonal naïve benchmark. The results

identify one cointegrating relationship between the two export markets. The estimated

long-run coefficient is 0.92, indicating near one-to-one price co-movement. Adjustment

toward equilibrium is asymmetric, with orange prices responding faster (ECT = −0.44)

than mandarin prices (ECT = −0.21). Forecasting results show that VECM-based models

outperform all alternative specifications. The robust VECM achieves the lowest forecast

errors (MAPE = 8.3%), compared with 9.8% for XGBoost, 10.6% for SARIMA, 11.5% for ETS,

and 14.1% for the seasonal naïve benchmark. Diebold–Mariano tests confirm that these

improvements are statistically significant. The findings indicate that orange and mandarin

export prices should be analyzed jointly rather than separately. In closely connected citrus

supply chains, cointegration-based forecasting models provide more reliable forecasts and

a stronger analytical basis for sustainable market coordination.