Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Innovation in Urban and Regional Planning, La Rosa D.,Privitera R., Editör, Springer, London/Berlin , Zürich, ss.22-28, 2022
The irreversible change in the land cover due to anthropogenic activities has accelerated the climate change impacts on cities. This acceleration has also created unpredictable stress such as flood-related hazards because of the increment in impervious surfaces. Moreover, the sudden and unpredictable changes in the precipitation pattern complicate sustainable water management. This situation directs the authorities to find nature-based and cost-effective solutions. Hence, this study offers a novel approach for flood risk assessment using climate change projections. The objectives of this study are to: (1) determine flood risk based on multi-criteria decision analysis in three dense urban watersheds in Istanbul, (2) explain the change in the future extreme events using climate projections, and (3) recommend blue-green infrastructure to decision-makers for the prioritized high flood risk areas. The global climate models MPI-ESM-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, and MOHC-HadGEM2-ES and their regional models were used considering RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The time ranges were set as of 2011–2015 (past), 2051–2055 (near-future) and 2091–2095 (future). The results showed that in the future period, based on MPI-ESM-LR global climate model projections for RCP 4.5 scenario, total precipitation increment will be a maximum of 1.70 times higher according to the past period.