Regional Studies in Marine Science, cilt.95, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
Picoplanktonic organisms are important components of the food web in marine ecosystems. Despite their small size, they contribute significantly to primary production. As phytoplankton communities are projected to shift from large to small species with warming, it is critical to include different size groups in projections of the impacts of warming on marine ecosystems. The Mediterranean Sea, among the most oligotrophic waters globally, has pronounced effects of warming due to its semi-closed structure. İskenderun Bay is a unique habitat in the northeastern Mediterranean characterized by relatively high primary production. In this study, the dynamics of picoplanktonic Synechococcus in İskenderun Bay were investigated between March 2010 and February 2011. Phytoplankton abundance, chl- a and physico-chemical parameters were also measured. Additionally, satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) data from 2003 to 2023 were analyzed to understand thewarming trend in the area. Synechococcus abundance in the surface water was found between 0.53 × 104 and 9.88 × 104 cells ml−1 and between 0.70 × 104 and 5.96 × 104 cells ml−1 in the subsurface depths. Synechococcus abundance showed significant seasonal variations, with high values in summer and autumn. Moreover, the analysis revealed a notable upward trend in surface temperature in the region over the period 2003–2023. The temperature increased by about 0.6°C every ten years on average. The observed warming trend suggests that these processes may further influence picoplankton dynamics in the northeastern Mediterranean. Despite providing only a snapshot of Synechococcus dynamics from 2010 to 2011, this study provides a valuable basis for future research to understand the long-term impacts of warming on microbial communities.