ESTIMATION OF NET ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION OF TURKEY

Bilgili M.

ISI BILIMI VE TEKNIGI DERGISI-JOURNAL OF THERMAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, cilt.29, sa.2, ss.89-98, 2009 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 29 Sayı: 2
  • Basım Tarihi: 2009
  • Dergi Adı: ISI BILIMI VE TEKNIGI DERGISI-JOURNAL OF THERMAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.89-98
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Artificial neural networks (ANNs), Electricity consumption, Electricity generation, Installed capacity, Linear regression (LR), Nonlinear regression (NLR), ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORK, GENETIC ALGORITHM APPROACH, ENERGY DEMAND ESTIMATION, EXERGY PRODUCTION, WIND-SPEED, POWER, OPTIMIZATION, PROJECTIONS, HYDROPOWER, PREDICTION
  • Çukurova Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This paper deals with estimation of the net electricity consumption of Turkey until the year 2012 based on linear regression (LR), nonlinear regression (NLR), and artificial neural networks (ANNs) methods. Installed capacity, gross electricity generation, population and total subscribership arc selected as independent variables. Two different scenarios (high and low) are proposed for predicting the Future electricity consumption. The LR, NLR and ANN model results are also compared with each other. and the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR) projection and literature results. Results show that the performance values of the ANN method are better than the performance values of the LR and NLR models. According to the high and low scenario, and ANN model, Turkey's net electricity consumptions will be 251.1 and 221.07 TWh by the year 2012, respectively.