Carbon taxes, emissions trading, and policy mix effects on carbon intensity: Causal and distributional evidence from OECD countries
Journal of Cleaner Production, cilt.573, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 573
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.148986
- Dergi Adı: Journal of Cleaner Production
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Chimica, Compendex, INSPEC, Public Affairs Index, Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO), Business Source Ultimate (EBSCO), Engineering Source (EBSCO)
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Carbon pricing, Carbon tax, Emissions trading system, Method of moments quantile regression, OECD countries, Staggered difference-in-differences
- Çukurova Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This study examines the comparative effectiveness of carbon pricing mechanisms, namely carbon taxes, emissions trading systems (ETS), and their combined use, in reducing carbon intensity across 38 OECD countries from 1990 to 2024. Addressing key methodological shortcomings in the existing literature, we utilize recent advances in staggered difference-in-differences methods to derive credible causal estimates that accommodate heterogeneous treatment effects across adoption cohorts and time. To further explore distributional variations in policy impacts, we employ method of moments quantile regression techniques. Our results indicate that all three policy configurations are associated with statistically significant reductions in carbon intensity, with combined instruments producing the strongest average effect (approximately 10.7%). Dynamic analysis shows that policy impacts intensify over time, with carbon taxes achieving a reduction of up to 16.7% and ETS up to 17.0% after 12–14 years. Quantile-based findings reveal notable heterogeneity: the association between carbon pricing adoption and carbon intensity reductions strengthens at higher quantiles, suggesting greater impact in countries with initially high carbon intensity. In contrast, combined policies exhibit stronger associations at lower quantiles, implying reinforcement of decarbonization trends in already cleaner economies. These insights offer practical guidance for policymakers seeking to tailor carbon pricing strategies to national contexts and long-term sustainability goals.