AGICore: A Traceable, Structurally Explainable Computational Framework for Assessing Nature-Based Solutions Under Urban Heat Risk

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Türkbay V., Çabuk A., Özenen Kavlak M., Duymuş H., Koca A., Balkan E., ...Daha Fazla

GSI JOURNALS SERIE C: ADVANCEMENTS IN INFORMATION SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGIES, cilt.8, sa.2, ss.38-52, 2026 (Hakemli Dergi)

Özet

This study aims to address the concept of a “core code” in complex adaptive systems within a scientifically verifiable framework, rather than through abstract and difficult-to-validate approaches. In this context, urban heat island (UHI) risk and nature-based solutions (NbS) are evaluated under the AGICore framework, which provides a traceable and structurally explainable approach. The AGICore approach defines three fundamental components recurring across different scales: regulation (feedback and stability), agency (capacity for goal-directed action), and information (the cost of measurement and processing processes). These components are considered within the constraints of thermodynamics and information theory. Instead of proposing a single ultimate equation, a reduced dynamic representation based on observable variables and a traceable decision structure is proposed. This theoretical framework is evaluated using the Urban Heat Island Effect Ratio (UHIER)–LST dataset covering the period 2005–2022 for urban regeneration areas (NMURP and NAURP) in Ankara. In this context, the findings presented by Ozenen Kavlak et al. (2025) are reconsidered within the AGICore framework. The results indicate a decreasing trend in UHIER across the study area, while also showing that localized warming hotspots persist in certain sub-regions where transformation has been completed, and building density has increased. This situation suggests that the thermal effects of urban regeneration processes may vary depending on morphological characteristics, surface impermeability, and the composition of green infrastructure. The main contribution of the study is to present a framework that emphasizes spatial heterogeneity and mechanism-based evaluation rather than treating UHIER analysis as a single output indicator. This approach demonstrates that NbS evaluation should not be limited to changes in green area quantity but should be assessed considering surface energy balance and spatial intervention components.