Application of long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network based on deep learning for electricity energy consumption forecasting

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BİLGİLİ M., ARSLAN N., ŞEKERTEKİN A., YAŞAR A.

TURKISH JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCES, cilt.30, sa.1, ss.140-157, 2022 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 30 Sayı: 1
  • Basım Tarihi: 2022
  • Doi Numarası: 10.3906/elk-2011-14
  • Dergi Adı: TURKISH JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCES
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Applied Science & Technology Source, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, INSPEC, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.140-157
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Deep learning, electricity energy consumption, short-term forecasting, ANFIS, LSTM neural network, MODE DECOMPOSITION, DEMAND, LOAD, TURKEY, ANFIS, PREDICTION, REGRESSION, ALGORITHM, FRAMEWORK
  • Çukurova Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Electricity is the most substantial energy form that significantly affects the development of modern life, work efficiency, quality of life, production, and competitiveness of the society in the ever-growing global world. In this respect, forecasting accurate electricity energy consumption (EEC) is fairly essential for any country's energy consumption planning and management regarding its growth. In this study, four time-series methods; long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) with subtractive clustering (SC), ANFIS with fuzzy c means (FCM), and ANFIS with grid partition (GP) were implemented for the short-term one-day ahead EEC prediction. Root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were considered as statistical accuracy criteria. Those forecasted results by the LSTM, ANFIS-FCM, ANFIS-SC and ANFIS-GP models were evaluated by comparing with the actual data using statistical accuracy metrics. According to the testing process, the best MAPE values were obtained to be 4.47%, 3.21%, 2.34%, and 1.91% for the ANFIS-GP, ANFIS-SC, ANFIS-FCM, and LSTM, respectively. Furthermore, the best RMSE values were found as 25.94 GWh, 41.17 GWh, 29.50 GWh, and 80.14 GWh for the LSTM, ANFIS-SC, ANFIS-FCM, and ANFIS-GP models, respectively. As a consequence, the LSTM model generally outperformed all ANFIS models. The results revealed that forecasting of short-term daily EEC time series using the LSTM approach can provide high accuracy results.